- Vladimir Putin will loose the presidential election.
The result of parliamentary elections, in which his party officially received 49,3% votes shows on one hand exhaustion of the effectiveness of populist tricks which he has in his arsenal, on the other – lack of opportunities to make decent forgery. On December 4, 2011 votes were added so ineptly that it caught the public attention, and yet failed to change the fact that “One Russia” is supported by less than the half of voters. It could not get worse PR-coupler transmission, and it is difficult to imagine that in less than three months the Russian Prime Minister would be able to erase the impression of a ‘double weakness’. Putin is probably to win the first round but in the latter he will lose to anyone who is in it (which means that this prediction is not optimistic).
- Turkey will withdraw the application for membership in the European Union and will come up with a proposal to create (modeled on the EU) an integration project in the Middle East and in the North Africa.
- Republicans’ candidate will win the presidential elections in the United States under the banner of a balanced budget.
From 2013 the savings will affect army and diplomacy, which will open the next era of American isolationism. The reduction of budget expenditure will be only a part of the ‘Ever Never Deal’, which will come in the U.S. Its other elements will include simplification and popularization of the tax system and a constitutional ban on state aid for enterprises, threatened by bankruptcy.
- Destabilization of Russia, uncertainty about the future of the Middle East and Obama’s defeat will not remain without any influence on exchange rates.
Investors will flee from emerging markets, including Poland. This will lead to exceed of a prudential threshold 55%, and finally, will force the reform.
Following in the footsteps of Witkacy, who wrote down “the support materials“ on the painted portraits, 0,25 of Lech beer forwards creative processes.
Translation: Małgorzata Wilińska